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Utilize este identificador para citar ou criar um link para este item: http://acervodigital.unesp.br/handle/11449/20582
Título: 
Impacts of Climate Change and the End of Deforestation on Land Use in the Brazilian Legal Amazon
Autor(es): 
Instituição: 
  • Univ Kassel
  • Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res
  • Int Food Policy Res Inst
  • UFZ Helmholtz Ctr Environm Res
  • Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG)
  • Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP)
ISSN: 
1087-3562
Financiador: 
  • International Max Planck Research School on Earth System Modelling, Hamburg, Germany
  • Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)
  • Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation
  • Climate and Land Use Alliance
Resumo: 
Climate change scenarios vary considerably over the Amazon region, with an extreme scenario projecting a dangerous (from the human perspective) increase of 3.8 degrees C in temperature and 30% reduction in precipitation by 2050. The impacts of such climate change on Amazonian land-use dynamics, agricultural production, and deforestation rates are still to be determined. In this study, the authors make a first attempt to assess these impacts through a systemic approach, using a spatially explicit modeling framework to project crop yield and land-use/land-cover changes in the Brazilian Amazon by 2050. The results show that, without any adaptation, climate change may exert a critical impact on the yields of crops commonly cultivated in the Amazon (e. g., soybean yields are reduced by 44% in the worst-case scenario). Therefore, following baseline projections on crop and livestock production, a scenario of severe regional climate change would cause additional deforestation of 181 000 km(2) (+20%) in the Amazon and 240 000 km(2) (+273%) in the Cerrado compared to a scenario of moderate climate change. Putting an end to deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon forest by 2020 (and of the Cerrado by 2025) would require either a reduction of 26%-40% in livestock production until 2050 or a doubling of average livestock density from 0.74 to 1.46 head per hectare. These results suggest that (i) climate change can affect land use in ways not previously explored, such as the reduction of yields entailing further deforestation, and (ii) there is a need for an integrated/multidisciplinary plan for adaptation to climate change in the Amazon.
Data de publicação: 
1-Mai-2011
Citação: 
Earth Interactions. Washington: Amer Geophysical Union, v. 15, p. 29, 2011.
Duração: 
29
Publicador: 
Amer Geophysical Union
Palavras-chaves: 
  • Tropical agriculture
  • Cattle ranching
  • Climate change adaptation
  • Integrated assessment
  • Cerrado
Fonte: 
http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2010EI333.1
Endereço permanente: 
http://hdl.handle.net/11449/20582
Direitos de acesso: 
Acesso restrito
Tipo: 
outro
Fonte completa:
http://repositorio.unesp.br/handle/11449/20582
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