A time series sequestration and storage model of atmospheric carbon dioxide

Abstract

One of the main challenges of environment planning is to identify a model that connects all factors that determine the carbon cycle, that is: ocean-terrestrial ecosystem-anthropogenic emissions-atmosphere. Basic principle of mass conservation can be applied in statistical modeling with a historic time series to obtain the atmospheric CO2 concentration, making it possible to create scenarios that will help in the decision making process. A model that links all carbon cycle factors has been developed this article, focusing on the Boreal, Temperate, Tropical, and Polar thermal climatic zones to calculate atmospheric CO2 level. It was developed with nonparametric models based on carbon dioxide records from measurement stations: EIA (Energy Information Administration), CDIAC (Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center), FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization), and SIO (Scripp Institution Oceanography). The advantage of the model developed here is that it is able to analyze different scenarios, considering both the behavior of particular countries or groups of countries in each thermal zone and their influence on the predicted concentrations of atmospheric CO2. Results show that in 2100, the atmospheric CO2 concentration will be four times that of the pre-industrial period. The Temperate zone already emits almost half of the carbon dioxide to the atmosphere; by 2100, this emission will increase 15 times more than that of the tropical zone. China will be responsible for nearly two times the emissions of the United States. CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere will stabilize when anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions decrease by at least 36% in the Temperate zone by 2100. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.