A simulação de Monte Carlo como instrumento fundamental para a análise de viabilidade econômica: a implementação de uma fundição de ferro em uma empresa metalúrgica

Abstract

In uncertainly economic scenarios, an economic feasibility analysis must be done to accept a project based on investment criteria, such as NPV and IRR, mainly because the shareholders tend to invest their budget in a project if it has a great chance to return their investments. The studied company outsources all of its foundry services, what makes it very dependent of its suppliers, because the products have a lower quality level, long delivery periods and high prices. Therefore, this work will analyze the project of building an iron-casting foundry to decrease the dependence of its suppliers. In order to develop this research, all needed data related to the construction of the foundry and sales were collected to create deterministic and probabilistic (Monte Carlo Simulation) cash flows using MsExcel® and Oracle's Crystal Ball® software. As a result, the project was found to be risky by the NPV and IRR in the case of this new production line supplying only the internal needs. However, when the company offers its services to the foundry market, the project turns to be feasible